Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
