Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
