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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward script. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your squad in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the biggest turnaround receives the award. However, it sparks an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or merely the biggest shock.

However the current competition is profoundly unique. The group of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division winners fading and longtime strugglers ascending collectively. During an normal season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this turbulent and thrilling season, he's facing five other exceptional coaches.

This is how the ideal vote ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right system, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to spin magic from broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a typical year, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current is not a normal year!

Where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and experience, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

After an initial strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still